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FF and the PDs
How much did Fianna Fail benefit from its transfer pact with the PDs in 1997? The prediction function can be used to estimate this, and the following table shows the results obtained:-
The following shows how these figues were obtained:- First, run a prediction approximating to the 1997 election result. Select the Predict menu option. A prediction matrix appears on top of the view window. Use the FileName option to select the "approx97" transfer matrix. Press the LoadXfers button. Use the FileName option to change the filename to "testing" and press SaveXfers. Now press OK and the matrix window disappears. Now select the Auto/Run option. Ensure the Default option is selected and press Start. The program speeds through the constituencies, applying the transfer matrix to each one. When finished, a summary window is displayed. FF obtains 77 seats, as in the general election. Now, select any constituency. The matrix window is redisplayed. Press the LoadXfers button to load the default matrix. Now, reduce the PD to FF transfer percentage from 55.66% to 11.27%, the same as PD to FG transfers. (The program will automatically adjust all transfer percentages so that they add up to 100%). Press OK and use the Auto/Run option to re-run the prediction. The result shows that FF lose 5 seats, while FG and Labour each gain 2. Now, set the PD to FG transfers to 55.66% and try again. Now, FF drop to 71 seats, FG get 60 while Labour drop to 17. |
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