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Large constituency simulation
Currently, all Dáil constituencies have between 3 and 5 seats. The constitution specifies a lower limit of 3 seats but there is no mandatory upper limit. In the early years of the state, constituencies of up to 9 seats were used. By using election database, an election using larger constituencies can be simulated. One would expect that the result would be a reduction in seats for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and a corresponding increase for the smaller parties.
The new constituencies were formed by amalgamating existing constituencies so that the actual 1997 results could be used. I devised a new constituency layout on the following basis:-
a) all counties split into 2 constituencies became a single constituency for the whole county (Donegal, Galway, Kerry, Kildare, Limerick and Tipperary)
b) three large constituencies were formed by amalgamating 3 counties:- Cavan-Monaghan-Louth, North Connacht (Mayo, Sligo and Leitrim) and North Midlands (Longford-Roscommon-Westmeath).
c) in Dublin and Cork, constituencies of up to 9 seats were formed by amalgamating adjoining constituencies.
Meath and Waterford were included with Dublin and Cork respectively.
d) the large 5-seaters in south Leinster were left unchanged, as was the constituency of Clare
The simulation was running by applying a transfer matrix which produces approximately the 1997 Dáil results to the new constituency layout.
(I have run kept Democratic Left as a separate party so that the results of the simulation
can be compared against the 1997 results).
The following table shows the results :-
| New constituencies |
Existing constituencies |
Changes |
Carlow-Kilkenny, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1Lab
|
Carlow-Kilkenny, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1Lab
|
no change
|
Cavan-Monaghan-Louth, 9 seats
4FF, 3FG, 1Lab, 1SF
|
Cavan-Monaghan, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1SF
Louth, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Lab
|
no change
|
Clare, 4 seats
3FF, 1FG
|
Clare, 4 seats
3FF, 1FG
|
no change
|
Connacht North, 9 seats
4FF, 4FG, 1Lab |
Mayo, 5 seats
2FF, 3FG
Sligo-Leitrim, 4 seats
2FF, 2FG
|
FG -1
Lab +1
|
Cork North West/Central, 8 seats
4FF, 3FG, 1Lab
|
Cork North Central, 5 seats
3FF, 2FG
Cork North West, 3 seats
2FF, 1FG
|
FF -1
Lab +1
|
Cork South West/Central, 8 seats
4FF, 3FG, 1Lab
|
Cork South Central, 5 seats
3FF, 2FG
Cork South West, 3 seats
1FF, 2FG
|
FG -1
Lab +1
|
Donegal, 6 seats
3FF, 2FG, 1Ind
|
Donegal NE, 3 seats
2FF, 1Ind
Donegal SE, 3 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Ind
|
FG +1
Ind -1
|
Dublin Central/North West, 8 seats
4FF, 1FG, 1Lab, 1DL, 1Ind
|
Dublin Central, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Ind
Dublin North-West, 4 seats
2FF, 1Lab, 1DL
|
no change
|
Dublin North East/North Central, 8 seats
4FF, 2FG, 1Lab, 1Green
|
Dublin North-East, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Lab
Dublin North Central, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Lab
|
Lab -1
Green +1
|
Dublin South/South Central, 9 seats
3FF, 3FG, 1Lab, 1PD, 1Green
|
Dublin South, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1PD
Dublin South-Central, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Lab
|
FF -1
Green +1
|
Dublin West/South West, 9 seats
3FF, 2FG, 1Lab, 1PD, 1DL, 1Soc
|
Dublin West, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Soc
Dublin South-West, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1PD, 1DL
|
FF -1
Lab +1
|
Dun Laoghaire/Dublin South East, 9 seats
2FF, 3FG, 1Lab, 1PD, 1DL, 1Green
|
Dun Laoghaire, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1DL
Dublin South-East, 4 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Lab, 1Green
|
FF -1
PD +1
|
Galway, 9 seats
5FF, 2FG, 1Lab, 1PD
|
Galway East, 4 seats
2FF, 2FG
Galway West, 5 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1PD, 1Lab
|
FF +1
FG -1
|
Kerry, 6 seats
2FF, 1FG, 2Lab, 1Ind
|
Kerry North, 3 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Lab
Kerry South, 3 seats
1FF, 1Lab, 1Ind
|
no change
|
Kildare, 6 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1Lab, 1PD
|
Kildare North, 3 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Lab
Kildare South, 3 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Lab
|
Lab -1
PD +1
|
Laois-Offaly, 5 seats
3FF, 2FG
|
Laois-Offaly, 5 seats
3FF, 2FG
|
no change
|
Limerick, 8 seats
3FF, 3FG, 1Lab, 1PD
|
Limerick East, 5 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Lab, 1PD
Limerick West, 3 seats
1FF, 2FG
|
no change
|
Meath-North Dublin, 9 seats
4FF, 3FG, 1Lab, 1Green |
Meath, 5 seats
3FF, 2FG
North Dublin, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Green
|
FF -1
Lab +1
|
Midlands North, 7 seats
4FF, 2FG, 1Lab
|
Longford-Roscommon, 4 seats
2FF, 2FG
Westmeath, 3 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Lab
|
FF +1
FG -1
|
Tipperary, 6 seats
3FF, 1FG, 1Lab, 1Ind |
Tipperary North, 3 seats
2FF, 1Ind
Tipperary South, 3 seats
1FF, 1FG, 1Lab
|
no change
|
Waterford-East Cork, 8 seats
4FF, 2FG, 1Lab, 1DL |
Waterford, 4 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1Lab
Cork East, 4 seats
2FF, 2FG
|
FG -1
DL +1
|
Wexford, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1Lab
|
Wexford, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1Lab
|
no change
|
Wicklow, 5 seats
2FF, 1FG, 1DL, 1Ind
|
Wicklow, 5 seats
2FF, 2FG, 1Lab, 1Ind
|
Lab +1
DL -1
See note 1 below
|
Overall result, 166 seats
74FF, 50FG, 21Lab, 6 PD, 4DL, 4Green, 1SF, 1Soc, 5Ind
|
Overall result, 166 seats
77FF, 54FG, 17Lab, 4 PD, 4DL, 2Green, 1SF, 1Soc, 6Ind
|
FF -3
FG -4
Lab +4
PD +2
Green +2
Ind -1
|
(1) The transfer matrix, when applied against the 1997 election results and constituencies
does not produce a perfect match. The best approximation I have found gives the DL seat in
Wicklow to Labour
As expected, larger constituencies help the smaller parties, with the exception of Sinn Féin.
This is largely due to Sinn Féin's difficulties in attracting transfers in the Republic, although
this may change as the peace process advances. This does show one of STV's advantages over other
electoral systems - it protects against extremist parties because voters will not transfer to them.
If Austria used STV as its electoral system, the Freedom party would not be in such a strong
position today - it would at the very least have been relegated to third place in the Austrian
parliament.
It is slightly surprising that the number of independents is reduced. One would expect that
larger constituencies would favour independents. However, while larger constituencies mean that
a lower percentage of the vote is required, the quota does increase in absolute terms.
The number of counts required also increased, to a maximum of 32 in the Dublin South/South Central
constituency. The fact the counting takes 2 or 3 days is not an argument against larger
constituencies - French elections are held over 2 weekends, and it has taken up to 8 weeks to
form a government after previous elections (1992).
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