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A Green Minister?
An opinion poll published in the Sunday Independent today (30/4/2000) shows FF with 49% of the vote, which would easily give the party an overall majority. However, these sort of ratings tend to evaporate when an election is called, and in the last two general elections FF has obtained just under 40% of the first-preference votes. The opinion poll was taken just after the Flood tribunal revelations and perhaps the most significant change in support was that of the Green party - now shown at 6% of the vote. At the last general election the Greens won 2 seats with 2.76% of the vote. What effect would a 3.5% swing to the Greens have? Assuming that the only change in support is a 3.5% swing to the Greens, with votes coming in proportion from all parties, then a prediction can be made by taking the "approx97" transfer matrix, which produces a result similar to the actual 1997 election result, and increasing the Green party's vote by 3.5%. The prediction results are:-
The most realistic government combination is an FG/Labour/Green coalition, which would have 82 seats, just 2 short of an overall majority. Of the independents, Michael Lowry and Tony Gregory would probably prefer this to an FF-dominated government. Of course, Labour could go into coalition with FF again, but this is unlikely to be popular with their supporters. The increase in Labour seats is a natural follow-on from an increase in the Green vote - as Green transfers tend to favour Labour ahead of FF or FG. With 5 seats, the Greens would probably get 1 and a half ministers, similar to the PDs at present. Trevor Sargent could be the next Minister for the Environment, or perhaps Minister for Public Enterprise, responsible for public transport in Dublin. The seats that the prediction gives to the Greens are (in order of safety):- Trevor Sargent (Dublin North), holding his existing seat John Gormley (Dublin South-East), holding his existing seat Dan Boyle (Cork South-Central), narrowly taking the last seat from FF John Goodwillie (Dublin South-Central) - this constituency is increasing from 4 to 5 seats at the next election. The prediction shows the Greens taking the last seat from Labour, leaving the constituency result as FF2, FG1, Lab1, GP1. Steve Rawson (Dublin North-Central) - taking the last seat from Labour. The Greens may be helped in this constituency by Seán Dublin-Bay Loftus's retirement from politics - he briefly won a Dáil seat in the early 80's. Against that, better vote management by FF would be difficult to fight against. Apart from these, the Greens lose out narrowly in Dublin South, the constituency that returned the first Green TD in 1989. Obviously, it is impossible to make a realistic prediction so far in advance of a general election. The sudden 3% rise in the Green vote could be a flash in the pan. Alternatively, it could be that the floating vote which went to the PDs in 1987 and to Labour in 1992 is now flowing towards the Greens. Increasing the swing to the Green party to 7% gives the following result:-
To finish, the following are the predicted results of a 7% swing to the Greens for each constituency. The results may not seem realistic, but then, who would have forseen Labour winning so many seats in 1992?
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