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The 2002 census
Preliminary figures for the 2002 census have now been published, showing that the population has now increased to 3,917,336. Based on these figures, there should be a number of constituency changes for the next election. This page will attempt to predict the constituency revisions, making the assumption that the size of the Dáil remains fixed at 166 (giving a ratio of 1 TD for every 23,598 people). The predictions will allow constituency populations to deviate from the average by + or - 5%. For constituency purposes, the country can be divided into 6 regions:-
The number of TDs in the smaller regions, Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan and Connacht are likely to be rounded up - leaving the three large regions of Dublin, Munster and Leinster with 47, 46 and 41 seats, with 1 seat to be allocated where it might be of most use (mathematically, Leinster is probably the most deserving region). Donegal Geography dictates that any constituency revision must start with Donegal. Currently, the county is divided into two three-seat constituencies. Its new population, 137383, entitles it to 5.82 TDs. This is within the 5% tolerance so Donegal will retain its 6 seats. Connacht Connacht is complicated by the current widely-disliked constituency of Longford-Roscommon, which crosses the provincial boundary. According to the census, the province is due 19.66 seats in the next constituency revision. The following table shows the figures per county :-
Clearly, the Galway and Mayo constituencies will remain the same. The real problem is what to do with Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim. Between the 3 counties, they are due 5.85 seats which could be rounded up to 6 without exceeding the 5% tolerance. The difficulty is that there is no clean way of dividing the counties into two 3-seaters. In the past, Leitrim has been divided between Sligo and Roscommon but this has proved extremely unpopular in Leitrim. The constituency commission may decide that it is unfair to divide a county with such a small population and that the best solution is to create two 3-seaters as follows:- Leitrim-Sligo - containing all Leitrim and most of Sligo Roscommon-Sligo - containing all Roscommon and parts of south Sligo Munster Munster currently has 48 TDs but the census indicates that is should only have 46.66. The following table shows the figures per county:-
Cavan-Monaghan These two south Ulster counties form a small region of their own for constituency purposes. The following table shows the figures per county :-
Leinster (excluding Dublin) Some of the biggest increases in population have occurred in the counties around Dublin. Leinster (excluding Dublin) is due 41.6 seats in the next constituency revision. The following shows the figures per county:-
Dublin
Summary The following is a summary of the predicted new constituencies:- Leitrim-Sligo: new 3-seater containing all of Leitrim and most of Sligo Roscommon-Sligo: new 3-seater containing all Roscommon and parts of south Sligo Longford-Westmeath: new 4-seat constituency Meath North-West, Meath South-East: 2 new 3-seat constituencies Kildare North: becomes a 4-seater Limerick East: becomes a 4-seater Cork North-Central: becomes a 4-seater Dublin Mid-West: becomes a 4-seater Alternatives This page is a crude prediction of the what the forthcoming constituency revision might look like. There are many alternatives, particularly in the north Leinster and north-east Connacht areas. Much depends on the priorities of the constituency commission. For example, a new 3-seat Drogheda constituency could be created, consisting of the Drogheda area of Louth and some parts of Meath. Louth North would become a 3-seater and the remainder of Meath would become a 4 seater. Given the geographical position of Drogheda, this might be a more natural arrangement. An alternative arrangement would be:- a 5-seat Sligo-Roscommon constituency a 5-seat Cavan-Longford-Leitrim constituency (including 3 provinces in 1 constituency) a 5-seat Monaghan-Louth constituency (containing all Louth except the Drogheda area) a 3-seat Drogheda constituency (containing the Drogheda area and parts of east Meath) a 4-seat Meath constituency If the commission considers that Munster should have 47 seats then the likelihood is that Limerick East will retain its 5 seats. |
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