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The latest Irish Times TNS MRBI
opinion poll was publishedlast Friday.
The poll produced the following results:- Fianna Fáil 30% down 11.5% on the general election result Fine Gael 22% roughly similar to the general election result Labour 19% up 8% on the general election result Sinn Féin 10% up 3.5% on the general election result PDs 5% up 1% Greens 4% no change Others 10% This poll showed Fianna Fáil support dropping again, now down to 30%. Simulating a general election using the poll figures produces the following results:-
Seats Cands Const FPV FPV% Seats%
1: Fianna Fáil 52 106 42 563185 30.43% 31.33%
2: Fine Gael 38 85 42 404813 21.87% 22.89%
3: Labour 36 66 42 356427 19.26% 21.69%
4: Sinn Féin 10 48 42 186826 10.09% 6.02%
5: Independent 12 95 38 140214 7.58% 7.23%
6: Progressive Democrats 8 44 42 96841 5.23% 4.82%
7: Green Party 8 31 31 74570 4.03% 4.82%
8: Socialist Party 2 5 5 15226 0.82% 1.20%
9: Christian Solidarity Party 0 23 23 4954 0.27% 0.00%
10: Workers Party 0 8 7 4184 0.23% 0.00%
11: Socialist Worker's 0 7 7 3458 0.19% 0.00%
The simulation shows Fianna Fáil losing 29 seats (although this is proportionally less than
Fine Gael's loss of 24 seats at the last election). Fianna Fáil losses would be greater were
it not for Sinn Féin's inability to attract transfers, which leaves Sinn Féin with only 6%
of the seats, despite winning 10% of the vote.
The results give Fine Gael and Labour with a combined total of 74 seats, which combined with the Green party's 8 seats would be enough to govern comfortably. The simulation also shows Joe Higgins and Clare Daly winning seats for the Socialist party (both are currently in prison over the bin charges protest). The really interesting question is: what happens if Fianna Fáil support continues to drop? If this happens, and if the Sinn Féin vote continues rising, it is possible that the next general election could see 4 parties (FF, FG, Labour and SF) all polling close to 20% of the vote. There has been much talk of late suggesting Fine Gael is in terminal decline. Perhaps it is actually Fianna Fáil that is doomed, destined to be replaced by Sinn Féin? The following are the constituency-by-constituency results of the simulation. The census results will ensure that the constituencies will change before the next election - the extent of the changes depends on the boundary commission. 1: Carlow-Kilkenny [5] [2ff,1fg,1gp,1lab] 2: Cavan-Monaghan [5*] [2ff,1sf,1ind,1fg] *=Ceann Comhairle (FF) 3: Clare [4] [1ind,1fg,1lab,1ff] 4: Cork East [4] [1fg,1ff,2lab] 5: Cork North-Central [5] [1lab,1fg,2ff,1pd] 6: Cork North-West [3] [2fg,1ff] 7: Cork South-Central [5] [2ff,1fg,1lab,1gp] 8: Cork South-West [3] [1ff,1lab,1fg] 9: Donegal North-East [3] [1ff,1fg,1ind] 10: Donegal South-West [3] [1fg,2ff] 11: Dublin Central [4] [1ff,1lab,1sf,1ind] 12: Dublin Mid-West [3] [1pd,1lab,1gp] 13: Dublin North-Central [4] [1lab,1fg,2ff] 14: Dublin North-East [3] [1lab,1ff,1fg] 15: Dublin North-West [3] [1lab,1sf,1ff] 16: Dublin North [4] [1lab,1gp,1ff,1sp] 17: Dublin South-Central [5] [1sf,2lab,1fg,1ff] 18: Dublin South-East [4] [1lab,1pd,1gp,1ff] 19: Dublin South-West [4] [1lab,1sf,1fg,1ff] 20: Dublin South [5] [1lab,1pd,1fg,1gp,1ff] 21: Dublin West [3] [1lab,1ff,1sp] 22: Dun Laoghaire [5] [2lab,1pd,1ff,1gp] 23: Galway East [4] [1fg,1ind,2ff] 24: Galway West [5] [2ff,1lab,1fg,1gp] 25: Kerry North [3] [1lab,1sf,1fg] 26: Kerry South [3] [1lab,1ff,1ind] 27: Kildare North [3] [1lab,1ff,1fg] 28: Kildare South [3] [1lab,1fg,1ff] 29: Laois-Offaly [5] [2ff,1pd,1fg,1lab] 30: Limerick East [5] [1ff,2fg,1lab,1pd] 31: Limerick West [3] [1ff,2fg] 32: Longford-Roscommon [4] [2fg,1ff,1pd] 33: Louth [4] [1lab,1sf,1ff,1fg] 34: Mayo [5] [2fg,1ind,2ff] 35: Meath [5] [1lab,2ff,1fg,1sf] 36: Sligo-Leitrim [4] [1ind,1ff,1sf,1fg] 37: Tipperary North [3] [1ind,1lab,1ff] 38: Tipperary South [3] [1fg,1ff,1ind] 39: Waterford [4] [1lab,1fg,2ff] 40: Westmeath [3] [1lab,1fg,1ff] 41: Wexford [5] [1lab,1fg,1ind,1ff,1sf] 42: Wicklow [5] [2lab,1fg,1ff,1ind] |
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